What are you most looking forward to, on or off the court?

The annual bevy of trivia that accompanies an NCAA Tournament. Have you heard there are two Miamis? Did you know Nebraska have never won a men’s tournament game? Are you aware that the Queens Royals have a “spirit animal” called Buddy the Street Dog? Even more importantly, I’m looking forward to watching enough basketball over the next three weeks to crack 68/68 on the Sporcle quiz of this year’s mascots. EB

That first Thursday and Friday remain two of the great days on the American sports calendar: noon-to-midnight hoops, four games on screen at a time, buzzer-beaters detonating out of nowhere and a campus or small college town you’ve never heard of suddenly becoming the center of the basketball universe. (And, to no one’s surprise, billions in lost productivity.) The NCAA Tournament still trades in the romance that anything, and anyone, can take over March. BAG

Which freshman star will boost their stock the most? This year’s first-year class is loaded with talent and many NBA mock drafts project the top seven picks to be current freshmen. We know a deep run can elevate a player’s draft position, while an early exit can hurt it. I’ll be watching closely to see which of the following freshmen will help themselves the most: AJ Dybantsa (BYU), Cameron Boozer (Duke), Darryn Peterson (Kansas), Kingston Flemings (Houston), Darius Acuff Jr (Arkansas) and Keaton Wagler (Illinois). NL

Frankly, with the sports calendar so crowded all the time, it feels great to be able to bask in college basketball once again. March Madness being good is one of the few things we can all agree on, so let’s enjoy its time at center stage. The thrills, the disappointments, the new stars and the impact it will have on the NBA draft. All of it. Of course, like most, what I can’t wait for most is to fall in love with a school I’d never heard of before. JU

Dark horse team to watch

Vanderbilt have four wins over NCAA Tournament teams, and three came in the nine days before Selection Sunday. That’s no small feat in the 10-bid Southeastern Conference. Their run to the SEC Tournament final included wins over Tennessee, now a No 6 seed, and a 17-point takedown of top-seeded Florida. EB

VCU under first-year coach Phil Martelli Jr could make some noise in the South Region. The 11th-seeded Rams enter the tournament in a rich vein of form, having won 16 of their last 17 games. Their high-volume three-point shooting is an equalizer that can flip games quickly and could turn the tables on a sixth-seeded UNC team who have lost dynamic freshman Caleb Wilson for the season. And lest we forget, the Rams have the Cinderella gene in their DNA. Has it really been 15 years since they went from the First Four to the Final Four? BAG

St John’s. The Red Storm are led by one of basketball’s all-time great coaches in Rick Pitino. The 73-year-old Long Island native has his team playing to his personality once again. They’re riding a six-game win streak and coming off a Big East Tournament championship with Saturday’s decisive win over rivals UConn. The committee didn’t do them any favors with a No 5 seed playing 3,000 miles from home, but expect Pitino and the Johnnies to stay hot. NL

How about No 7 seed Saint Mary’s? It seems like every year the Catholic school coached by the great Randy Bennett is upsetting one powerhouse or another. This year the Gaels beat then-No 9 Gonzaga by double digits in February. Will they spring a few more upsets in the tournament? I think so! First over Texas A&M and then … maybe Houston? If it’s a deeper cut you’re looking for, try Penn from the spunky Ivy League, led by former Duke five-star recruit TJ Power. JU

The most vulnerable of the top seeds is …

On paper, Michigan are probably the weakest of the four No 1 seeds, but I don’t think anyone should envy Duke for the draw they got in the East Region. Dan Hurley’s UConn, Tom Izzo’s Michigan State, Rick Pitino’s St John’s and Bill Self’s Kansas – all coaches who have won national titles – could await the Blue Devils come the second weekend. EB

Michigan are elite on both ends and brutally efficient inside, but may be the weakest of the No 1s after key rotation piece LJ Cason went down to a season-ending torn ACL just weeks before the tournament. Turnovers remain the one lingering flaw, which is enough to invite trouble against the wrong matchup at the wrong time in a knockout format. BAG

Duke. The Blue Devils are coming off an ACC title and a dominant 32–2 season, so why the concern? Injuries. They’ve kept winning, but March is about elite point guard play – and Duke will be without starter Caleb Foster. Can they get through a potential Sweet 16 matchup against a Mount Rushmore coach like Bill Self or Rick Pitino? Time will tell, but it won’t be easy. NL

Michigan, if you’re looking for a No 1 to go down. Truthfully, it’s hard to find a particularly vulnerable top seed, but I’ll go with the Wolverines for the fun of it here. If you want to see a No 2 seed fall, check out Purdue or Iowa State. They have the upset stink all over them, potentially even in the first round. JU

One bold prediction

Kansas star Darryn Peterson will play more than 35 minutes in at least two games. The potential No 1 pick in the NBA draft has been one of this season’s most … intriguing? … storylines. His issues with cramping and inconsistency meant he played 30 or more minutes in just 10 of Kansas’ 33 games. When he’s on the court, he’s one of the most entertaining offensive players in recent memory. If he can stay on it, he could carry the Jayhawks on a deep tournament run. EB

A No 15 or No 16 seed will win a game. It took more than three decades for a 16 to finally beat a 1, but it’s happened twice semi-recently with UMBC in 2018 and Fairleigh Dickinson in 2023. Meanwhile No 15 seeds have surged, winning 12 NCAA Tournament games since 2012 after just four in all for more than a quarter-century of the 64-team era. As the transfer portal redistributes experienced players and modern offenses prioritize spacing and shooting, the structural advantages that once protected top seeds in one-off games on neutral courts are steadily eroding. (Of this year’s crop, Furman over UConn has the best shot.) BAG

For the first time in 17 years, there will not be an 11-over-6 upset. I like the big boys – Louisville, UNC, Tennessee and BYU – to all take care of business and advance to the second round. No one loves an upset more than I do, but the talent gap in these matchups is just too much to overcome. Go chalk! NL

A play-in team will make the Sweet 16. Maybe it will be Miami (Ohio), who enter their First Four play-in game on Wednesday night with a whopping 31-1 record after winning their first 31 games in a row. Despite that mark, the school has a giant chip on its shoulder. Usually teams that nearly run the table don’t have to prove themselves to make the actual round of 64. Wouldn’t it be nice if an HBCU like Howard advanced, too? Or maybe a tiny outfit like Lehigh? JU

Has NIL made March Madness better or worse?

You can argue that it’s made college basketball in general better – players deserve to get paid – but it’s fair to wonder if we’ll get less of the Cinderella magic that makes March so special when the divide between the top and middle tiers is starker than ever. Last year brought just four “major upsets” – games where the winner was at least five seeds lower than the loser – after an average of 11.25 across the four previous tournaments. The round-of-64 games weren’t particularly close: just four of the 32 were decided by five or fewer points. Here’s hoping this year is different. EB

NIL hasn’t broken March Madness, but it’s thoroughly professionalized it. Rosters are assembled like free agency and money shapes the field more than ever. The result: fewer extended Cinderella runs and a tournament dominated by resource-rich programs. Upsets still happen, but they’re harder to sustain deep into March. BAG

Most would agree NIL isn’t being used as originally intended. It was supposed to let players profit off their name, image, and likeness, capitalizing on their success. Instead, it’s turned into guaranteed money and, more than anything, a recruiting tool. The system feels broken and likely isn’t sustainable. NL

I don’t really know and, with all due respect to the question, I don’t really care. I know we’re in the wild west regarding NIL and I also know players should be paid (over the table). If anything, NIL might get more players to stay in school longer, which is good for them and good for basketball fans. College basketball was at its height in the 1980s and 1990s because people could follow a player like Michael Jordan or Patrick Ewing over three or four years. That doesn’t happen much now but maybe it will more from now on. JU

Men’s Final Four

Duke, Illinois, Arizona, Iowa State. EB

Michigan State, Houston, Arizona, Michigan. BAG

St John’s, Houston, Arizona, Michigan. NL

Duke, Houston, Virginia, Arkansas. JU

The champion will be …

Arizona. Success in March is all about finding the right balance: offensive efficiency and defensive prowess, talented youth with veteran experience, big stages with calm collectedness. The Wildcats have that. In a year of star freshmen, from Kansas’ Peterson and Duke’s Boozer to BYU’s Dybantsa and Arkansas’ Acuff Jr, Brayden Burries has flown under the radar. Arizona are dominant enough in the paint – fourth in rebounds per game and second in two-pointers per game – to make up for their lack of three-point shooting. (Their 16.3 attempts/game ranks 354th out of all 361 Division I teams.) The West looks to be the weakest of the four regions, and this feels like it could be the Wildcats’ year. EB

Arizona look like the most complete team in the field. The Wildcats blend elite freshman talent with experienced leadership in the backcourt, giving them the balance that usually matters deep in March. They can score efficiently, defend multiple positions and adjust their tempo depending on the opponent. Just as importantly, they’ve already navigated a demanding Big 12 conference schedule and won tight games late. In a tournament where many contenders have rather pronounced and identifiable flaws, the Wildcats’ depth and versatility stand out. If they can stay disciplined defensively and avoid foul trouble, Arizona have the pieces to survive six games and snip down the nets in Indy. BAG

Arizona. The Wildcats haven’t been to a Final Four since 2001, when they lost to Duke in a classic title game. They’re due. Head coach Tommy Lloyd has overachieved in the regular season in each of his five years in Tucson and this feels like the breakthrough postseason run. The Wildcats have great positional size, five guys averaging double figures, and put up 86 points per game. They take what the defense gives them and can beat you inside or on the perimeter. Fresh off a Big 12 Tournament championship, look for them to stay hot and cut down the nets in Indianapolis. NL

Duke. They came up just short last year with star NBA prospects like Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel. This year, the Blue Devils will take home the trophy with another set of future pros in twins Cameron and Cayden Boozer, the sons of an NBA All-Star and Olympic champion. If you don’t know by now Cameron is Him, as the kids say. He can do it all: handle, rebound and shoot. But if something goes south for him, his brother is right there to pick him up, just like a good twin should. Bet on Duke. I’m positive-ish! JU